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 Pacific systems to affect Southern California Feb 5 thru Feb 9

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WillW-CA



Posts : 4
Join date : 2008-09-27
Location : Temescal Valley, Ca

PostSubject: Pacific systems to affect Southern California Feb 5 thru Feb 9   Tue Feb 03, 2009 8:23 pm

Several low presure systems will move across Southern California and then through the southwest beginning Thursday, Feb 5. The last system may arrive Monday, Feb 9, but those details are still in early discussions. Here is wording from NWS in San Diego from todays 1:30PM release:

*************************************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST TUE FEB 3 2009
------
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING THE SYSTEM WHICH IS
NOW A LITTLE EAST OF 140W AND ELONGATED N-S AROUND 35-40 DEG N. WITH
THE JET STREAM WEAKENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...NOT MUCH
FURTHER DEEPENING IS EXPECTED...SO MOST OF THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
AREAS FURTHER N OF OUR AREA THU/THU NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE A
DECENT SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU OR THU
EVENING...AND PRECIP AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1/2 INCH APPEAR LIKELY AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 INCH ON SOME OF THE OROGRAPHIC SW
SLOPES...WITH THE FACT THAT MOISTURE WILL ONLY EXTEND UP TO ABOUT
700 MB BEING A LIMITING FACTOR. GENERALLY AROUND 60 POPS PER TIME
PERIOD LOOK GOOD...AND WITH MORE TIMING CERTAINTY...THEY COULD BE
RAISED LATER. INSTABILITY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS 500 MB TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND -22 OR -23 DEG C...THOUGH TSTORM CHANCES ARE TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...AT LEAST THU/THU NIGHT. A PERIOD
OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS/HIGH
DESERTS...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODERATE. THUS...GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN WINDIEST SPOTS.

A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE SYSTEM FOR LATE
FRI/FRI NIGHT/SAT LOOKS PRETTY STRONG AND QUITE UNSTABLE...AND
DEEPLY UNSTABLE AS WELL...TO ABOVE 500 MB...SO TSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL WILL BE MORE VARIABLE DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE
OF THE PRECIP...AND WITH MULTIPLE VORT MAXES...TIMING OF PRECIP WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. ORGANIZED PRECIP COULD OCCUR ANYTIME FROM
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 2 INCHES ON COASTAL SLOPES...WITH THE DESERTS
POSSIBLY RECEIVING DECENT RAINFALL. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO AN
OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...PROBABLY TO AROUND 5000
FEET...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS AT RESORT
LEVELS. MODELS ARE RATHER DIVERGENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECM
SHOWING DRY NW FLOW AFTER THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND THE GFS
SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH FOR MONDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE ECM DUE TO A HISTORY OF BETTER PERFORMANCE WITH N PACIFIC
SYSTEMS AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
*******************************

More updates to come.

-ww
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WillW-CA



Posts : 4
Join date : 2008-09-27
Location : Temescal Valley, Ca

PostSubject: SPC 3 Day regarding SoCal system   Wed Feb 04, 2009 10:30 am

SPC's 3-day outlook now discusses possibilities with the Fri/Sat system. At this time severe weather probabilities are too low at this time, but stay tuned:
------------------------
*******
...SRN COASTAL CA...
A FEW TSTMS...PERHAPS WITH SMALL HAIL...APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN COASTAL CA FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP AS ASCENT AND COLDER AIR ALOFT /-26C AT H5/
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
MOST SREF MEMBERS INDICATE MUCAPE VALUES AOB 250 J/KG CONFINED TO
OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
TO EXIST COINCIDENT WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS INDICATES A DEEPER MID LEVEL LOW THAN
LATEST ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT OCCURS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WHEN COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL OVER
LAND AREAS. WHILE A FEW TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...THE PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
*****************
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Pat Darrow



Posts : 109
Join date : 2008-12-31
Age : 57
Location : Meeker, CO

PostSubject: Re: Pacific systems to affect Southern California Feb 5 thru Feb 9   Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:22 am

Hey Will, looks like maybe a good day today for storms given NWS statement for Day 1 outlook. Funny that there is a heavy snow MD out for east of you today as well. Gotta love southern CA Smile
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WillW-CA



Posts : 4
Join date : 2008-09-27
Location : Temescal Valley, Ca

PostSubject: Re: Pacific systems to affect Southern California Feb 5 thru Feb 9   Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:42 am

Hey Pat...yep looks like might be an exciting day here.... a lot of ground to cover...hope it pans out for me.
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