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 21-01-09 svr weather in southern Ireland to SW England and Wales

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Posts : 91
Join date : 2008-09-20
Age : 46
Location : NDS/Germany

PostSubject: 21-01-09 svr weather in southern Ireland to SW England and Wales   Wed Jan 21, 2009 3:22 pm

... Belt from southern Ireland to SW England and Wales...

A mid level impulse is forecast to develop in the strenghtening flow , inducing the development of the trough in the low level pressure field. A strong upward motion is predicted to destabilize the airmass, which will profit from the inflow of moist and humid air from the south. Dewpoint temperatures will probably exceed 10°C. Degree of instability is questionable at the moment and different model runs were quite inconsistent in this matter. Nevertheless, strong low level convergence and upward motion are forecast, which will easily compensate for the lack of instability. Judging from the simulated convective precipitation patterns and wind fields a strongly-forced convective line will form. The trough is expected to strenghten the flow, especially in the low levels as a 850 hPa winds should reach 30 m/s. More than 15 m/s of low level shear is anticipated and 300 J/kg of SREH will be available to the developing updrafts.

Convection should enhance the severity of wind gusts and a few tornadoes might occur in the mesovortices of convective line. The overall threat will not be very high, but it still warrants a Level 1. Convective line should affect Ireland around 00Z and Britain around 03Z. An update might be issued during the day due to the uncertainities in the situation.
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21-01-09 svr weather in southern Ireland to SW England and Wales
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