7-20-09 FCST: KS/NE/OK/CO/TX/NM

It appears a significant severe weather episode is possible on Monday particularily for parts of western and southern KS...
It appears a low will position itself in far southwest KS during the afternoon, a warm front will stretch east - north - east across the middle of the state, and a dry line will setup south of the low, both will be the focus for severe storms... the dryline will be the triggering mechanism for OK/TX/far sw KS, where as the warmfront will be for the rest of southwest and south central Kansas...

I am tentatively thinking of chasing this event... current target if I end up chasing is near or just west of Meade, KS

Overall Severe Threat: 60% (Moderate Risk of Severe Storms)
Tornado Threat: 10% KS / 5% OK-TX / 2% NE/CO/NM

Main threat will be from very large hail, however isolated tornadoes seem possible despite weak wind support at this time.

Still believe significant severe weather is possible in Kansas but also per the SPC significant severe weather appears possible in Nebraska, I just briefly took a look a few of the forecast models for tommorow ...

updated target: Elwood, NE...
still thinking supercells with isolated tornadoes are possible, but the main threat will very likely be very large hail.