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 16 April 2009 Slight Risk in some Parts of Germany (S/W)

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Posts : 91
Join date : 2008-09-20
Age : 46
Location : NDS/Germany

PostSubject: 16 April 2009 Slight Risk in some Parts of Germany (S/W)   Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:33 am

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Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 16 Apr 2009 06:00 to Fri 17 Apr 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 16 Apr 2009 04:58

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

...Germany, Benelux...

CAPE is currently not really large, but marginally enhanced deep layer shear (10-15 m/s) and deep dry boundary layers like in the 00Z Essen or De Bilt sounding (small warm cloud depth) support some chance of reasonably large hail, as well as gusts (evaporative cooling). Additionally, large scale rising motion may further destabilize the profiles. The forecast well-defined convergence zone with mid level flow mostly parallel to the line (posibly enhancing hail cycling), may cause some multicells to be effective hail producers.
There is potential for thunderstorms tracing along the path of previous cells which could locally cause large rain sums, but as profiles currently still seem rather unsaturated, the chance seems limited.
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16 April 2009 Slight Risk in some Parts of Germany (S/W)
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