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 svr weather today in germany friday 23-01-09

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Andre-ESCT

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PostSubject: svr weather today in germany friday 23-01-09   Tue Jan 20, 2009 6:58 pm

VIEW On Thursday first still last snow and cases of sleet are possible, in the morning dry it here in the southeast of Bavaria as well as toward Lausitz. In the remaining regions the day drying begins and after dissolution of local fog banks partly also with sunshine. To noon close clouds with rains and/or snow in higher situations draw up in the west half. Besides the wind increases here clearly; particularly in individual mountain situations as well as at the North Sea Coast storm gusts can occur. In addition, isolated in the northwestGerman flat country storm gusts are possible. On Friday a storm or an gale low can pull into the North Sea area. In its sphere of influence a storm situation suggests itself from current view for some regions. At first relatively mild temperatures thereby regional substantial amounts of precipitation are possible. The snow limit might at first common above 1000 meters be appropriate. In the course of the day it can drop in the north half and the center of the country to approximately 400 to 800 meters. The exact development is however still afflicted with large uncertainties. On Saturday it can rain and snow in the south half and the center of the country regionally longer continuously and partly productively. The snow limit presumably lies between 300 and 500, in the extreme south at the beginning of still by 1000 meters. In the north half changeful weather with snow, sleets or Soft Hail stops itself, regionally is here in addition, longer dry sections possible. Perhaps at first still storm gusts are possible, in the course of the day can the wind in the south refurbish clearly at the coasts. In the remaining regions the wind blows usually only weak against it to moderate.


Last edited by GermanyChaser on Fri Jan 23, 2009 8:21 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: svr weather today in germany friday 23-01-09   Thu Jan 22, 2009 5:59 am



Storm low passage on Friday New weather turbulences in view Regarding the forthcoming, very turbulent weather a view is recommended at present to the west. First an Atlantic weather front in in the afternoon process, which spreads in combination with a strongly to stormy south wind to Germany, follows. It becomes increasingly wet, in hilly regions winter with snow.
The high point of the turbulent development follows then on Friday with new rain and snow. In addition storm gusts and gale-like gusts threaten, on the mountains gale gusts in connection with a partial low pulling from Benelux to Northwest Germany.

Precipitation map for Friday


http://www.wetteronline.de/
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PostSubject: 23-01-09 MDT Risk in S/SW/W France, Slight Risk in some places in Germany   Thu Jan 22, 2009 5:31 pm



Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 23 Jan 2009 06:00 to Sat 24 Jan 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 22 Jan 2009 20:36
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

The cyclonic vortex between Iceland and Scotland remains in place with numerous disturbances along its periphery, delivering unsettled and cold conditions to NW Europe. A flat upper trough is placed over SE Europe while cold/stable conditions prevail over NE Europe. A depression enters the forecast area during the evening hours from the west, growing into a major extratropical depression. A few more lines about this feature:

Discrepancies between past few model runs are still noticeable although all of them merged to the solution of a depression, crossing the S-Bay of Biscay and SW-France during the night hours. However, how low the central pressure will be remains somewhat obscure with GME/GFS still showing the most intense solutions (GFS12Z down to near 960hPa). Latest glance on IR-enhanced GOES-12 loop reveals a distinct baroclinic leaf structure between 40°-50°N/40°-50°W at 17Z. 12Z analysis of the Ocean prediction center already tracked this feature as an 1004hPa wave with dewpoints to its south up to 15°C, running roughly 10K lower to its north, which is in accord with GFS/GME. Also upper-levels with jet core now topping out at near 110m/s (250hPa) fits in the forecast philosophy of both models, so we decided to stick with them and keep the rest of the models in view. Connection to the slightly modified tropical airmass holds steady and favorable placement beneath the left exit of the slowly weakening upper jet should indeed result in strengthening and possible rapid cyclogenesis ( 24hPa/24h or more). This depression crosses the S-Bay of Biscay between 18Z-00Z, reaching W-France after midnight.

DISCUSSION

... W/SW coast of Turkey, NE Greece and S-Bulgaria [06Z-15Z]...

A constantly weakening depression, affecting a vast area over SE-Europe, slowly moves northeastwards. Ongoing convection / new thunderstorm development is likely over the Aegean Sea, especially along the coastal areas, where strong LL convergence and CAPE release become maximized. Rough terrain more onshore and an increasingly cold/stable boundary layer should keep thunderstorms more elevated, but persistent and strong influx of warm/moist air keeps surface based convection within the bounds of possibility along the coast and just offshore. A rapid increase of ageostrophic deflection onshore enhances LL shear and thunderstorms along the coast, rooting into the highly sheared layer could gain rotating updrafts in addition to 30-40m/s background shear until 09Z. Thereafter, shear relaxes bit by bit and so does the tongue of rich BL moisture, which lowers the severe risk after 12Z. A level-1 was introduced along the coast concerning the isolated tornado/severe wind gust risk and due to a large hail risk over NE-Greece and extreme SW/S-Bulgaria, where stronger directional shear and 400-800 SBCAPE overlap. Both, the severe thunderstorm risk but also the coverage of storms should decrease over the level-1 after 12Z, but thunderstorms will continue around Crete until the morning hours in a weakly sheared environment.


... Central/east France, W/SW-Germany ...

The focus for isolated thunderstorms arises along the eastward marching cold front although conditions appear only marginal supportive. Tongue of higher theta-e values ahead of this front dissolves noticeably while crossing E-France. However, rapid SE-ward advancing mid-level CAA in conjunction with a SE-ward advancing negative tilted upper trough axis offset detoriating BL conditions, so a tongue of marginal instability persists all the way to W/SW-Germany, 12Z. Some potential instability release looks reasonable as intrusion of dry low-stratosphere air, a weakening UVV field and cold front overlap over W-Germany/E-France around 9Z-12Z, so confidence in an isolated thunderstorm event along the cold front is high enough to include a general thunderstorm area. In addition to that, a level-1 was introduced to reflect an isolated severe wind gust risk due to winds at 850hPa of 20-25m/s. An isolated tornado event over E-France can't be excluded especially during the afternoon hours, as BL remains quite moist and SRH1 increases. The thunderstorm risk should ease after 12Z over Germany and hence no level/general thunderstorm area was drawn over central Germany despite the ongoing risk of isolated severe wind gusts. All in all, this is a low-end thunderstorm risk.

... NW/N-Spain and SW/central France [18Z-06Z and onwards] ...

The strong cold front will be the first focus for deep convection, which reaches NW-Spain around 18Z and continues its rapid eastward propagation thereafter. A concern is the fact that trajectories now pass over the Iberian Peninsula, so prefrontal warm sector loses its favorable connection to the high theta-e plume. Nevertheless, a strong cold front reaches SW/W-France at midnight as mid-level lapse rates steepen somewhat (6-7K/km). A forced line of showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this cold front and this line will move well inland. Better BL moisture around Toulouse should ensure the line to keep its strength over SW-France, while a light weakening trend may occur further to the north. Instability release is on the low-end side, but intense forcing and rapidly strengthening shear point to a widespread severe-damaging wind gust/isolated large hail event. Thunderstorms along the cold front, rooting into the surface layer should be able to ingest SRH-1 values in excess of 400m^2/s^2. This combined with LCLs below 600m and some 0-3km CAPE release augments the tornado risk and a strong tornado is certainly possible, if persistent and surface based convection evolves. Thunderstorm activity will also increase over S/SE-France during the early morning hours, as cold front pushes eastwards. Severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are possible in this environment.

Of even bigger concern is the back-bent occlusion, which is forecast to cross the extreme SE Bay of Biscay and SW-France between 03Z and 06Z. It is still too far out to speculate about such more small-scale features, but this possible solution has to be kept in mind. A line of showers/thunderstorms could accompany the passage of this occlusion as mid-levels cool down rapidly. The main risk with this convection would be extreme wind gusts as winds at 850hPa reach 50m/s and forecast soundings support the mix down of such high values to the surface. Directional shear would be also conducive for tornadic activity. Later model runs have to be evaluated before sticking to this possibility. The level-2 was mainly issued as wind gusts along the cold front, associated with deep and/or electrified convection, will likely exceed 33m/s. The potential strong tornado risk, although still somewhat uncertain, also flows in this level-2.

The final area for enhanced thunderstorm chances will be just below the depression's center, which comes ashore somewhere around Nantes at 00Z onwards. The speed shear is much weaker, but directional shear remains high, so isolated tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms, evolving in this environment. Marginal hail and strong gusts are also forecast and hence the level-1 area was expanded well inland to reflect this risk.
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PostSubject: Re: svr weather today in germany friday 23-01-09   Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:23 am

OLDB (it is in my City) North West Germany
Air pressure NN (hPa)

Fr, 23.01. 17:00 967 - 0,3
Fr, 23.01. 16:00 966 - 2,4
Fr, 23.01. 15:00 967 - 3,7
Fr, 23.01. 14:00 967 - 5,1
Fr, 23.01. 13:00 969 - 5,7
Fr, 23.01. 12:00 970 - 5,9
Fr, 23.01. 11:00 972 - 6,2
Fr, 23.01. 10:00 974 - 6,5
Fr, 23.01. 09:00 976 - 6,9
Fr, 23.01. 08:00 978 - 6,3


On Friday o.a. the edge low determines the weather in Germany. In its sphere of influence particularly a storm situation adjusts itself in the western, southwest and middle regions. Spread must be counted on storm gusts in the flat country, isolated also on heavy storm gusts. In the mountain country partially gale-like gusts threaten. In the alps strong foehn arises. At first relatively mild temperatures thereby regionally strong precipitation is in the form of rains to expect in the central mountain high situations also in the form of snow. Locally our danger thresholds for heavy rain can be achieved and particularly at smaller rivers in the Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate, as well as in the Bergi country flood danger exists. The snow limit might drop from initially 800 to 1000 meters to the evening in the west to approximately 400 to 800 meters. In a broad strip from Mecklenburg to the Bavarian alps locally ice is by freezing sleets or rains possible, partly can even in deeper situations snow fall here. Considerable new-fallen snow quantities are to be considered from the high sour country over the Hochtaunus up to the Rhön. In the course of the evening the wind from the west diminishes gradually, otherwise however first still the danger remains of storm gusts. At the night to Saturday regionally something rain or sleet falls from East Frisia to the Lausitz as well as northeast of it time and. In Schleswig-Holstein it can rain occasionally also more strongly. Something snow or freezing rain is besides in the center and in the southeast possible. In the early one arises in the extreme southwest of new rains. The south-west wind blows in far regions at first still moderately to freshly, at the coasts also strongly with individual storm gusts. In the course of the night the wind in the inland diminishes gradually. In the south it is predominantly weakly windy.

Are nearly completely given many storm/gale and snow warnings in Germany out.Some parts of east germany has no warnings.
The wind continues to increase.
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