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 7-20-09 FCST: KS/NE/OK/CO/TX/NM

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AndyG
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Posts : 106
Join date : 2008-09-18
Location : Minnesota

PostSubject: 7-20-09 FCST: KS/NE/OK/CO/TX/NM   Sun Jul 19, 2009 4:43 pm

It appears a significant severe weather episode is possible on Monday particularily for parts of western and southern KS...
It appears a low will position itself in far southwest KS during the afternoon, a warm front will stretch east - north - east across the middle of the state, and a dry line will setup south of the low, both will be the focus for severe storms... the dryline will be the triggering mechanism for OK/TX/far sw KS, where as the warmfront will be for the rest of southwest and south central Kansas...

I am tentatively thinking of chasing this event... current target if I end up chasing is near or just west of Meade, KS

Overall Severe Threat: 60% (Moderate Risk of Severe Storms)
Tornado Threat: 10% KS / 5% OK-TX / 2% NE/CO/NM

Main threat will be from very large hail, however isolated tornadoes seem possible despite weak wind support at this time.
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AndyG
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Posts : 106
Join date : 2008-09-18
Location : Minnesota

PostSubject: Update for 7-20-09   Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:16 am

Still believe significant severe weather is possible in Kansas but also per the SPC significant severe weather appears possible in Nebraska, I just briefly took a look a few of the forecast models for tommorow ...

updated target: Elwood, NE...
still thinking supercells with isolated tornadoes are possible, but the main threat will very likely be very large hail.
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7-20-09 FCST: KS/NE/OK/CO/TX/NM
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