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 High Risk of svr Weather in France

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Andre-ESCT

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PostSubject: High Risk of svr Weather in France   Fri Jan 23, 2009 11:54 am

There is a High Risk of svr Weather in S/SW France.



Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 23 Jan 2009 14:00 to Sat 24 Jan 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 23 Jan 2009 14:06

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook, issued at Thu 22 Jan 2009 20:36 UTC.

DISCUSSION

... NW/N-Spain and SW-France...

GFS/GME and UKMO all retarded the forward propagation of this depression somewhat, which made some adjustments necessary over SE-France.

The majority of the models now agrees in the passage of a strong/intense extratropical depression, which crosses the S-Bay of Biscay between 21Z-06Z and makes landfall just around 06Z over the W-central coast of France. Latest GOES-12 IR/VIS image has this feature now somewhere around 45°N/20°W and enhanced convection along the gradually evolving cold front is present as a dry slot approaches from the west, increasing the likelihood that GFS is on track with modest CAPE release along the cold front.

NW-Spain was included into the level-2 as the active cold front passes by and severe to damaging winds mix down to the surface. This risk continues eastwards along the cold front.

The SE Bay of Biscay and parts of SW-France were upgraded as the environment becomes supportive for an organized line of storms, crossing the level-3 area from the west at 00Z onwards. A combination of an eastward moving, intense vorticity lobe beneath aforementioned dry slot and the cold front itself should assist in the development of some moderate instability and a squalline, probably possessing a line echo wave pattern, is forecast. Forecast soundings (GFS) also indicate abundant CAPE release between 750-500hPa, also increasing below 3km. The main threat will be a widespread damaging wind gust risk with this line of storms as convective gusts likely exceed 33m/s. Otherwise, LCLs around 600m, LL shear of 25-30m/s, aforementioned LL CAPE release and intense directional shear also point to a significant tornado risk and strong tornadoes are possible.

Between 03Z-06Z, attention also turns to the approaching occlusion. As a result of the slow down and the earlier occlusion process of the depression, the back-bent occlusion now remains more displaced to the north, affecting the region around Bordeaux. Deep convection is likely with that activity as mid-/upper levels cool down and a sharp north-south wind shear gradient sets-up. Strong directional shear just onshore persists, so tornadoes and severe wind gusts are possible, especially if this occlusion runs a bit more to the south than currently thought. The risk continues after 06Z.

... The rest of the highlighted areas ...

The level-1 along the coastal areas of SW/W-Turkey and NE-Greece was downgraded as shear and instability start to relax.

The level-1 over E-France was re-issued as numerous convective lines evolved with gusts of 20-25m/s. This activity also diminishes during the next few hours.


http://www.estofex.org/


Last edited by GermanyChaser on Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Andre-ESCT

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PostSubject: Re: High Risk of svr Weather in France   Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:18 pm

For more information take a look to the France Weather service.
The Side is in France Languages but you can translate it with babelfish.
This is a very big Storm in the south of france, overnight and tomorrow.
Gale gust speed to 100 mph at the costs is possible.

Any Livecams here...


http://www.viewsurf.com/

France Weather Service here..

http://france.meteofrance.com/#
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PostSubject: Re: High Risk of svr Weather in France   Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:52 pm

Maybe if I'm really really lucky the squall line will randomly move north and I will get some thunder and lightning for once! But I'm never lucky in terms of weather No

Maybe this summer I will be though! cheers
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Andre-ESCT

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PostSubject: Re: High Risk of svr Weather in France   Sat Jan 24, 2009 5:08 am

High Risk in S/SW France and N Spain

In Spain overnight a gale gust to 215,2 km/h that is 133.72 mph and now in France the Big Storm hit in Saturday morning the S/SW coastline in the Atlantic with Windspeed to 148 kmh = 91.96 mph in Bordeaux.
Here is a Forecast Report from the Big Storm Klaus.

Heavy tempests threaten gale low over southwest Europe.

After on Friday storm low " Joris" in parts of Germany for action ensured, seized on weekend the next, still stronger edge low of a North Atlantic low pressure complex Europe from the west. It meets in the Saturday morning with full force on the southwest Atlantic coast of France and continues to tighten then in exactly eastern direction on the alpine sheet.

While in Germany in Saturday the wind decreases also in the north and the east, Southern France particularly stands and north Spain by the follow-up low " Klaus" partly heavy tempests before. Gale gusts are to be expected from the Biskaya in the west until the east to the sea-alps often even in the flat country. The storm field can expenditure-mature occasionally also still up to the islands of the Balearen in the Mediterranean.



On Saturday morning in the Spanish Basque country and in the southwest of France gale gusts were already registered over 120 kilometers per hour. Convenient in Bordeaux, about 50 kilometers in the interior of France, reached the gusts of wind in points even already 148 of kilometers per hour. The present weather conditions remind of December 1999, when as a result of the gale " Lothar" over Germany a following low in Southern France heavy tempest damage had caused.

http://www.wetteronline.de
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PostSubject: Re: High Risk of svr Weather in France   Sat Jan 24, 2009 5:20 am

I found some news from the svr weather in france..

500,000 households in France because of tempests without river Bordeaux - after violent storms 500,000 households of the current supply are cut off in southwest France. Affected inhabitants of the administrative districts are particularly Gironde and les country. That communicated the power supplier ERDF. The authorities announced, the airport of Bordeaux remain closed due to the storm gusts with a speed of up to 147 kilometers per hour. The fire-brigade announced numerous employments in the night. The French weather service had published a tempest warning for the southwest of the country on Friday. At the night because of the storm in seven administrative districts the uncertainty phase was " RED" proclaimed.


http://www.swissinfo.ch/ger/news/newsticker/500_000_Haushalte_in_Frankreich_wegen_Unwetter_ohne_Strom.html?siteSect=146&sid=10238224&cKey=1232785270000&ty=ti&positionT=1
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